@inproceedings{KaesoMuesgensGrothe, author = {K{\"a}so, Mathias and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Grothe, Oliver}, title = {Dynamic Forecast Combinations of Improved Individual Forecasts for the Prediction of Wind Energy}, series = {IEEE Conference Proceedings EEM 2016}, booktitle = {IEEE Conference Proceedings EEM 2016}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5090-1298-5}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2016.7521228}, pages = {5}, abstract = {We study the prediction performance of different improved individual wind energy forecasts in various static and dynamic ombination processes. To this end, we develop a combined error minimization model (CEMM) based on nonlinear functions. This approach reflects the nonlinear nature of weather and especially of wind energy prediction problems. Based on the model, we construct significantly improved individual forecasts. The corresponding time dependent model coefficients are determined by dynamic OLS (ordinary least squares) regression and Kalman filter methods. The former method shows a slightly better performance than the Kalman filter based approaches. Further improvements can be achieved by a combination of these improved wind energy forecasts. In this case, the combination coefficients are calculated from a static and two dynamic OLS regressions. The resulting forecasts are characterized by a further increased prediction accuracy compared to the combination of the uncorrected forecast data and can outperform a given benchmark.}, language = {en} } @techreport{MuesgensKaeso, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and K{\"a}so, Mathias}, title = {Auktionsdesign f{\"u}r Photovoltaikanlagen auf Freifl{\"a}chen}, publisher = {r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.]}, address = {K{\"o}ln ; Cottbus}, pages = {39}, language = {de} } @techreport{BadeKaesoLienertetal., author = {Bade, Alexander and K{\"a}so, Mathias and Lienert, Martin and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Schmitz, Christoph and Wissen, Ralf}, title = {Ausgestaltung eines Auktionsmodells f{\"u}r EE-Anlagen in Deutschland}, publisher = {r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.]}, address = {K{\"o}ln ; Cottbus}, pages = {90}, language = {de} } @techreport{MuesgensRiepinPoudineh, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Riepin, Iegor and Poudineh, Rahmat}, title = {A Note on Climate Policy Negotiations at the Threshold of COP-21 in Paris}, pages = {6}, language = {en} } @misc{BadeMuesgens, author = {Bade, Alexander and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Verteilungsaspekte einer Harmonisierung der europ{\"a}ischen Klimaschutzmaßnahmen}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, volume = {40}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, number = {1}, issn = {0343-5377}, doi = {10.1007/s12398-016-0170-y}, pages = {33 -- 40}, language = {de} } @misc{BadeMuesgens, author = {Bade, Alexander and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Auswirkungen eines 'Wassertiefenbonus' bei Ausschreibungen f{\"u}r Windenergieanlagen auf See}, series = {ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen}, volume = {66}, journal = {ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen}, number = {10}, issn = {0013-743X}, pages = {25 -- 27}, language = {de} } @inproceedings{Muesgens, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Roads to Transition in German Energy Policy}, series = {The road to Paris \& multi-level carbon pricing: Getting the incentives right at the global, European \& national level}, booktitle = {The road to Paris \& multi-level carbon pricing: Getting the incentives right at the global, European \& national level}, publisher = {Potsdam-Institut f{\"u}r Klimafolgenforschung}, address = {Potsdam, Cottbus}, pages = {46 -- 57}, language = {en} } @techreport{BadeMuesgens, author = {Bade, Alexander and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Warum brauchen wir eine st{\"a}rkere Harmonisierung der Energiepolitik in der EU?}, publisher = {r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.]}, address = {K{\"o}ln ; Cottbus}, language = {de} } @techreport{BadeGrowitschLienertetal., author = {Bade, Alexander and Growitsch, Christian and Lienert, Martin and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Schmitz, Christoph and Wolf, A.}, title = {Aktionsprogramm Klimaschutz 2020: Konsequenzen potenzieller Kraftwerksstilllegungen}, publisher = {r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.]}, address = {K{\"o}ln ; Hamburg ; Cottbus}, pages = {48}, language = {de} } @inproceedings{ScholzMuesgens, author = {Scholz, Daniel and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {How to improve standard load profiles: Updating, regionalization and smart meter data}, series = {14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017}, booktitle = {14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5090-5499-2}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2017.7981939}, pages = {6}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MoebiusMuesgens, author = {M{\"o}bius, Thomas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Electricity Market Equilibria and Intermittent Renewables - A Stochastic Approach}, series = {14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017}, booktitle = {14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5090-5499-2}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2017.7981988}, pages = {5}, language = {en} } @misc{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {The German Energiewende and its Roll-Out of Renewable Energies: An Economic Perspective}, series = {Frontiers in Energy}, volume = {11}, journal = {Frontiers in Energy}, number = {2}, issn = {2095-1698}, doi = {10.1007/s11708-017-0467-5}, pages = {126 -- 134}, language = {en} } @misc{MuesgensSeeliger, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Seeliger, Andreas}, title = {Der Shale Gas-Boom in den USA und die {\"o}konomischen Auswirkungen auf Deutschland}, series = {ifo Schnelldienst}, volume = {66}, journal = {ifo Schnelldienst}, number = {24}, issn = {0018-974X}, pages = {3 -- 5}, language = {de} } @incollection{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Energiewirtschaft - Ver{\"a}nderung und Wandel}, series = {Kommunikation erneuerbarer Energieversorgung}, booktitle = {Kommunikation erneuerbarer Energieversorgung}, editor = {Hipp, Christiane and Kaelber, Claus and M{\"u}ller, Jens}, publisher = {e-transform}, address = {Augsburg}, pages = {30 -- 37}, language = {de} } @incollection{MuesgensSeeliger, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Seeliger, Andreas}, title = {Unkonventionelle Erdgasvorkommen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Europa}, series = {Energie f{\"u}r Deutschland 2013 : Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext}, booktitle = {Energie f{\"u}r Deutschland 2013 : Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext}, publisher = {Weltenergierat - Deutschland e.V.}, address = {Berlin}, pages = {7 -- 31}, language = {de} } @techreport{LenzenLienertMuesgens, author = {Lenzen, V. and Lienert, Martin and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Effizientes Regime f{\"u}r den Ausbau der EE, Weiterentwicklung des Energy-Only-Marktes und Erhaltung des EU-ETS}, publisher = {Frontier Economics [u.a.]}, address = {Brussels [u.a.]}, pages = {150}, language = {de} } @misc{Muesgens, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {{\"O}konomische Besonderheiten des Energiemarktes}, series = {EnWZ : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r das gesamte Recht der Energiewirtschaft}, volume = {6}, journal = {EnWZ : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r das gesamte Recht der Energiewirtschaft}, number = {7}, issn = {2195-2841}, pages = {243 -- 247}, language = {de} } @misc{Muesgens, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Equilibrium prices and investment in electricity systems with CO₂-emission trading and high shares of renewable energies}, series = {Energy Economics}, volume = {86}, journal = {Energy Economics}, issn = {0140-9883}, doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2018.07.028}, pages = {8}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KreuzbergMuesgens, author = {Kreuzberg, Martin and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Der Einfluss der Speicherkraftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland - Eine modellgest{\"u}tzte Analyse}, series = {2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien}, booktitle = {2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien}, publisher = {Institut f{\"u}r Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft}, address = {Wien}, language = {de} } @techreport{KreuzMuesgensWissen, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Wissen, Ralf}, title = {Absch{\"a}tzung von F{\"o}rderkosten der Bestandsanlagen erneuerbarer Energien bis zum Jahr 2030}, publisher = {Brandenburgische Technische Universit{\"a}t}, address = {Cottbus ; Senftenberg}, pages = {26}, language = {de} } @techreport{MuesgensNeuhoff, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Neuhoff, Karsten}, title = {Modelling Dynamic Constraints in Electricity Markets and the Costs of Uncertain Wind Output}, publisher = {University of Cambridge, Electricity Policy Research Group}, address = {Cambridge}, pages = {26}, language = {en} } @techreport{Muesgens, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Sektorziele verteuern den Klimaschutz und behindern die Sektorenkopplung}, publisher = {acatech - Deutsche Akademie der Technikwissenschaften}, address = {Berlin}, language = {de} } @inproceedings{RiepinMoebiusMuesgens, author = {Riepin, Iegor and M{\"o}bius, Thomas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Integrated Electricity and Gas Market Modeling - Effects of Gas Demand Uncertainty}, series = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, booktitle = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5386-1488-4}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2018.8469790}, pages = {5}, abstract = {This paper develops an integrated fundamental investment model which considers both the gas and electricity sector. Furthermore, we adopt the theory of stochastic programming with recourse in the combined model to account for uncertainty in the gas market. This approach enables us to analyze how uncertain gas demand in other sectors affects decisions to invest in electricity generation capacities. We find an overall decrease and a reallocation of investments in gas-fired power plants. We also quantify the expected costs of ignoring uncertainty.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MuesgensRiepin, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Riepin, Iegor}, title = {Is Offshore Already Competitive? Analyzing German Offshore Wind Auctions}, series = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, booktitle = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5386-1488-4}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2018.8469851}, pages = {6}, abstract = {Two German offshore wind auctions in 2017 and 2018 saw more than 50\% of winning capacity with "zero bids". The nature of these surprisingly low bids is, however, not yet clear. In our paper, we discuss four hypotheses for possible causes for the auction results: (i) the bids are expected to be profitable due to market development and technological progress, (ii) bids can be perceived as "options to build" that can be realized if projects are profitable, (iii) bids are adjusted to secure grid access, and (iv) other long term reasons not primarily driven by the profitability of the winning bids. Our results suggest that there is evidence for all hypotheses to influence the decision making of auction bidders. In fact, we suggest to see the four hypothesis as cumulative value components, which reveal the true value of winning the auction at "zero cost" in aggregate.}, language = {en} } @misc{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Measuring the cost of renewable energy in Germany}, series = {The Electricity Journal}, volume = {31}, journal = {The Electricity Journal}, number = {4}, issn = {1040-6190}, pages = {29 -- 33}, abstract = {Electricity generation from renewable energy is increasing globally. However, in most electricity systems this growth comes at a price in the form of increased costs. This paper quantifies the costs for renewable energy installations built in Germany between 2000 and 2011. Our analysis sheds light on the 'Energiewende' in Germany, which is a front runner in the worldwide renewables rollout. To evaluate cost, benefits and policy instruments, the methodology can also be applied to other countries.}, language = {en} } @misc{EngelhornMuesgens, author = {Engelhorn, Thorsten and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {How to estimate wind-turbine infeed with incomplete stock data: A general framework with an application to turbine-specific market values in Germany}, series = {Energy Economics}, volume = {72}, journal = {Energy Economics}, issn = {0140-9883}, pages = {542 -- 557}, abstract = {This paper analyses market values of wind energy converters at the individual turbine level on a very large scale. Such an analysis is usually precluded by the lack of detailed public data on the stock of wind turbines. We therefore present a general method to estimate incomplete turbine stock data and generate hourly yields of individual turbines based on completed turbine stock data and highly disaggregated hourly wind speed data. On this basis, we calculate hourly infeed and annual market values of up to 25,700 wind turbines in Germany from 2005 to 2015. We show the spread in market values on turbine level, quantify regional differences and discuss the effect of turbine age on market values. We show that turbines in central Germany have, on average, lower market values than turbines in the north, south or far west of Germany. Furthermore, we show that modern turbines reach higher market values than older turbines. We also analyse the drivers of market values, differentiating between infeed-price correlation and standard deviation.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities?}, publisher = {Brandenburgische Technische Universit{\"a}t}, address = {Cottbus ; Senftenberg}, pages = {30}, abstract = {Asymmetric cost pass-through between crude oil and retail fuel prices "Rockets and Feathers" has been analysed for different countries and time periods. However, few studies have been conducted for the German market. Furthermore, this study differentiates between company types and regions in this context. We compare price setting behaviour of independent and major brand stations following oil price changes. Furthermore, we differentiate between regions with higher and lower population densities. We establish an error correction model with a novel data set from the years 2011 to 2012. Our results confirm significant differences between price setting behaviour after oil price changes of major brand stations and other stations.}, language = {en} } @misc{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities?}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, volume = {43}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, number = {2}, issn = {0343-5377}, doi = {10.1007/s12398-019-00252-x}, pages = {117 -- 130}, language = {en} } @techreport{RiepinMuesgens, author = {Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market}, publisher = {University of Cambridge, Energy Policy Research Group}, address = {Cambridge}, pages = {28}, language = {en} } @techreport{EngelhornMuesgens, author = {Engelhorn, Thorsten and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Why is Germany's energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation}, publisher = {Brandenburgische Technische Universit{\"a}t}, address = {Cottbus ; Senftenberg}, pages = {35}, language = {en} } @techreport{MuesgensKreuz, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Kreuz, Sebastian}, title = {{\"U}ber eine CO2-Bepreisung zur Sektorenkopplung: Ein neues Marktdesign f{\"u}r die Energiewende}, pages = {26}, abstract = {Dieser Impuls stellt Zwischenergebnisse der ESYS Arbeitsgruppe „Strommarktdesign" vor. Ein Schwerpunkt der Arbeitsgruppe ist ein verbessertes Marktdesign f{\"u}r die Sektorenkopplung, dessen wesentlicher Bestandteil eine wirksame CO2-Bepreisung ist. Aufgrund der aktuellen klimapolitischen Debatten und der damit verbundenen großen Dynamik hat die Arbeitsgruppe dieses Impuls mit besonderem Fokus auf dem CO2-Preis verfasst. Die Gesamtergebnisse werden 2020 in einer ausf{\"u}hrlichen Studie ver{\"o}ffentlicht, die auch weitere Aspekte des Strommarktdesigns umfasst.}, language = {de} } @misc{ScholzZundelMuesgens, author = {Scholz, Daniel and Zundel, Stefan and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Price and Employment Effects triggered by a German Coal Phase-Out - A Discourse Analysis}, series = {16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, journal = {16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, publisher = {IEEE}, isbn = {978-1-7281-1257-2}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2019.8916478}, pages = {1}, language = {en} } @misc{BatzLineiroMuesgens, author = {Batz Li{\~n}eiro, Taimyra and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {A first analysis of the photovoltaic auction program in Germany}, series = {16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, journal = {16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, isbn = {978-1-7281-1257-2}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2019.8916472}, pages = {5}, language = {en} } @misc{JansenStaffellKitzingetal., author = {Jansen, Malte and Staffell, Iain and Kitzing, Lena and Quoilin, Sylvain and Wiggelinkhuizen, Edwin and Bulder, Bernard and Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy}, series = {Nature Energy}, volume = {5}, journal = {Nature Energy}, number = {8}, issn = {2058-7546}, doi = {10.1038/s41560-020-0661-2}, pages = {614 -- 622}, language = {en} } @misc{MuesgensRiepin, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Riepin, Iegor}, title = {Offshore-Windenergie - subventionsfrei?}, series = {e|m|w.Trends : das Innovationsmagazin von ener|gate}, journal = {e|m|w.Trends : das Innovationsmagazin von ener|gate}, number = {5}, issn = {1611-2997}, language = {de} } @techreport{RiepinJansenStaffelletal., author = {Riepin, Iegor and Jansen, Malte and Staffell, Iain and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {The era of 'negative-subsidy' offshore wind power has almost arrived}, language = {en} } @techreport{WeyerMuesgens, author = {Weyer, Hartmut and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Netzengp{\"a}sse als Herausforderung f{\"u}r das Stromversorgungssystem. Regelungsfelder, Status quo und Handlungsoptionen}, address = {M{\"u}nchen}, isbn = {978-3-9820053-2-4}, pages = {98}, language = {de} } @misc{BatzLineiroMuesgens, author = {Batz Li{\~n}eiro, Taimyra and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Evaluating the German PV auction program: The secrets of individual bids revealed}, series = {Energy Policy}, journal = {Energy Policy}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112618}, abstract = {Auctions have become the primary instrument for promoting renewable energy around the world. However, the data published on such auctions are typically limited to aggregated information (e.g., total awarded capacity, average payments). These data constraints hinder the evaluation of realisation rates and other relevant auction dynamics. In this study, we present an algorithm to overcome these data limitations in German renewable energy auction programme by combining publicly available information from four different databases. We apply it to the German solar auction programme and evaluate auctions using quantitative methods. We calculate realisation rates and—using correlation and regression analysis—explore the impact of PV module prices, competition, and project and developer characteristics on project realisation and bid values. Our results confirm that the German auctions were effective. We also found that project realisation took, on average, 1.5 years (with 28\% of projects finished late and incurring a financial penalty), nearly half of projects changed location before completion (again, incurring a financial penalty) and small and inexperienced developers could successfully participate in auctions.}, language = {en} } @misc{RiepinMoebiusMuesgens, author = {Riepin, Iegor and M{\"o}bius, Thomas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Modelling uncertainty in coupled electricity and gas systems - is it worth the effort?}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {285}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116363}, pages = {14}, abstract = {The interdependence of electricity and natural gas markets is becoming a major topic in energy research. Integrated energy models are used to assist decision-making for businesses and policymakers addressing challenges of energy transition and climate change. The analysis of complex energy systems requires large-scale models, which are based on extensive databases, intertemporal dynamics and a multitude of decision variables. Integrating such energy system models results in increased system complexity. This complexity poses a challenge for energy modellers to address multiple uncertainties that affect both markets. Stochastic optimisation approaches enable an adequate consideration of uncertainties in investment and operation planning; however, stochastic modelling of integrated large-scale energy systems further scales the level of complexity. In this paper, we combine integrated and stochastic optimisation problems and parametrise our model for European electricity and gas markets. We analyse and compare the impact of uncertain input parameters, such as gas and electricity demand, renewable energy capacities and fuel and CO2 prices, on the quality of the solution obtained in the integrated optimisation problem. Our results quantify the value of encoding uncertainty as a part of a model. While the methodological contribution should be of interest for energy modellers, our findings are relevant for industry experts and stakeholders with an empirical interest in the European energy system.}, language = {en} } @misc{EngelhornMuesgens, author = {Engelhorn, Thorsten and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Why is Germany's energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation}, series = {Resource and Energy Economics}, volume = {65}, journal = {Resource and Energy Economics}, issn = {1873-0221}, doi = {10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101241}, pages = {18}, abstract = {This paper discusses the efficiency of promotion schemes for renewable energy sources using the example of onshore wind energy in Germany. We analyse whether the scheme incentivised a cost-minimal capacity build-up by developing a model to derive two cost-minimal benchmark scenarios, which are then compared to the historical capacity build-up between 1995 and 2015. The costs of the two cost-minimising benchmark scenarios are significantly lower than those of the historical build-up. The benchmark cost reduction largely stems from greater efficiency—fewer turbines are being constructed overall but they are being placed at better wind sites so the annual production of wind energy remains unchanged. Hence, aggregated turbine land use is also significantly down in these scenarios. Furthermore, we compare costs for consumers, as protecting consumers from price discrimination of producers is sometimes used to justify higher payments for low-wind sites. However, our results show that the efficiency gain from building at high wind sites outweighs the distributional effect, even from a consumer's perspective.}, language = {en} } @misc{AntweilerMuesgens, author = {Antweiler, Werner and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {On the long-term merit order effect of renewable energies}, series = {Energy Economics}, volume = {99}, journal = {Energy Economics}, issn = {0140-9883}, doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105275}, pages = {19}, abstract = {The merit order effect describes the lowering of the average wholesale electricity price due to increased capacity of renewable energies. This effect has been observed in many places. While it is beneficial for consumers, it has triggered concerns about the economic viability of legacy plants. Is this merit order effect a permanent feature of high shares of renewable energy, or merely a transitory phase? This article develops a simple theoretical model to shed light on this question. It introduces intermittent renewable energies into a conventional mix of base load and peak load and investigates the effect when base and peak load remain unchanged in the short-term, and when they fully adjust in the long-term. We find that the merit order effect is a temporary phenomenon that is caused by the slow pace of capacity adjustments. We also find that the introduction of renewables has a mild beneficial long-term effect when base load is provided monopolistically, as renewables compete with base load to a limited extent. Consequently, concerns about the adverse consequences for conventional power plants resulting from renewable capacity are only partially justified. While in the short-term the generation portfolio suffers from "stranded assets", market forces will gradually reduce overcapacity. We also confirm that renewable expansion can be complemented by energy-only markets to incentivize efficient investment in conventional capacity.}, language = {en} } @misc{RiepinMuesgens, author = {Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Seasonal flexibility in the European natural gas market}, series = {The Energy Journal}, volume = {43}, journal = {The Energy Journal}, number = {1}, issn = {1944-9089}, doi = {10.5547/01956574.43.1.irie}, pages = {117 -- 138}, abstract = {This paper focuses on seasonal demand swings in the European natural gas market. We quantify and compare the role of different flexibility options (domestic production, gas storage, and pipeline and LNG imports) to assess European demand fluctuations in monthly resolution. We contribute to the existing literature on seasonal flexibility by addressing the problem with a mathematical gas market optimization model. Our paper provides valuable empirical insights into the decline of gas production in northwestern Europe. Furthermore, we focus on how specific flexibility features differ between pipeline supplies and LNG supplies and between gas imports and storage dispatch. In terms of methodology, we construct a bottom-up market optimization model and publish the complete source code (which is uncommon for gas market models). Furthermore, we propose a new metric—the scaled coefficient of variation—to quantify the importance of supply sources for seasonal flexibility provision.}, language = {en} } @misc{NikodinoskaKaesoMuesgens, author = {Nikodinoska, Dragana and K{\"a}so, Mathias and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {306, Part A}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117983}, pages = {17}, abstract = {Precise renewable energy feed-in forecasts are essential for an effective and efficient integration of renewables into energy systems, and research contributions that help to reduce the uncertainty related to renewables are in high demand. This importance will increase in the future, as renewable energies are the world's fastest growing electricity generation capacities. Forecast combinations have been empirically proven to outperform individual forecasting models in many disciplines. Our work uses an elastic net method, with cross-validation and rolling window estimation, in the context of renewable energy forecasts. Namely, the forecast combinations are obtained using regional data from Germany for both solar photovoltaic and wind feed-in during the period 2010-2018, with quarter-hourly frequency. The dynamic elastic net estimation, preceded by dynamic data pre-processing, improves forecasting accuracy for both photovoltaic and wind power feed-in forecasts. Moreover, our forecasting framework outperforms benchmarks such as simple average and individual forecasts. Our forecasting framework can be applied widely to estimate renewable power in other countries, systems, or individual power plants.}, language = {en} } @misc{JansenBeiterRiepinetal., author = {Jansen, Malte and Beiter, Philipp and Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Guajardo-Fajardo, Victor Juarez and Staffell, Iain and Bulder, Bernard and Kitzing, Lena}, title = {Policy choices and outcomes for the competitive procurement of offshore wind energy globally}, series = {Energy Policy}, volume = {167}, journal = {Energy Policy}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113000}, abstract = {Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes.}, language = {en} } @misc{NguyenMuesgens, author = {Nguyen, Thi Ngoc and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {323}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119603}, abstract = {In this paper, 180 papers on photovoltaic (PV) output forecasting were reviewed and a database of forecast errors was extracted for statistical analysis. The paper shows that among the forecast models, hybrid models are most likely to become the primary form of PV output forecasting in the future. The use of data processing techniques is positively correlated with the forecast quality, while the lengths of the forecast horizons and out-of-sample test sets have negative effects on the forecast accuracy. The paper also found that the use of data normalization, the wavelet transform, and the inclusion of clear sky index and numerical weather prediction variables are the most effective data processing techniques. Furthermore, the paper found some evidence of "cherry picking" in the reporting of errors and we recommend that the test sets be at least one year long to avoid any distortion in the performance of the models.}, language = {en} } @misc{RiepinSchmidtBaringoetal., author = {Riepin, Iegor and Schmidt, Matthew and Baringo, Luis and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Adaptive robust optimization for European strategic gas infrastructure planning}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {324}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119686}, abstract = {An adaptive robust optimization model for a gas transmission expansion problem. Analysis of Projects of Common Interests' value in maintaining gas system resilience. Endogenous realizations of cold-winter demand spikes and supply shortages. Publicly available source code for the entire project.}, language = {en} } @misc{JalboutGengeRiepinetal., author = {Jalbout, Eddy and Genge, Lucien and Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {What do we know about green hydrogen supply costs?}, series = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, journal = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-6654-0896-7}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921127}, pages = {1 -- 7}, abstract = {This paper is set up to answer the question: What do we know about future hydrogen import costs on the European border? Our work focuses on breaking down, structuring and analysing the body of literature on hydrogen supply chains. We provide a comprehensive analysis on (i) What ranges of costs exist in the literature for specific steps of hydrogen supply chains? (ii) Which assumptions show the highest uncertainty? (iii) Related, what assumption seems to have the most substantial effect on the resulting EUR/kgH2 import cost estimate? While we narrow our discussion focus on North Africa and Australia to Europe in 2050, we hope policymakers, research fellows and energy-sector stakeholders around the globe might be interested in our results.}, language = {en} } @misc{BerneckerRiepinMuesgens, author = {Bernecker, Maximilian and Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Modeling of Extreme Weather Events—Towards Resilient Transmission Expansion Planning}, series = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, journal = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-6654-0896-7}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921145}, pages = {1 -- 7}, abstract = {In this paper, we endogenously compute worst-case weather events in a transmission system expansion planning problem using the robust optimization approach. Mathematically, we formulate a three-level mixed-integer optimization problem, which we convert to a bi-level problem via the strong duality concept. We solve the problem using a constraint-and-column generation algorithm. We use cardinality-constrained uncertainty sets to model the effects of extreme weather realizations on supply from renewable generators.}, language = {en} } @misc{NguyenMuesgens, author = {Nguyen, Thi Ngoc and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {A Meta-Analysis of Solar Forecasting Based on Skill Score}, series = {arXiv}, journal = {arXiv}, doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2208.10536}, pages = {1 -- 55}, abstract = {We conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis of deterministic solar forecasting based on skill score, screening 1,447 papers from Google Scholar and reviewing the full texts of 320 papers for data extraction. A database of 4,687 points was built and analyzed with multivariate adaptive regression spline modelling, partial dependence plots, and linear regression. The marginal impacts on skill score of ten factors were quantified. The analysis shows the non-linearity and complex interaction between variables in the database. Forecast horizon has a central impact and dominates other factors' impacts. Therefore, the analysis of solar forecasts should be done separately for each horizon. Climate zone variables have statistically significant correlation with skill score. Regarding inputs, historical data and spatial temporal information are highly helpful. For intra-day, sky and satellite images show the most importance. For day-ahead, numerical weather predictions and locally measured meteorological data are very efficient. All forecast models were compared. Ensemble-hybrid models achieve the most accurate forecasts for all horizons. Hybrid models show superiority for intra-hour while image-based methods are the most efficient for intra-day forecasts. More training data can enhance skill score. However, over-fitting is observed when there is too much training data (longer than 2000 days). There has been a substantial improvement in solar forecast accuracy, especially in recent years. More improvement is observed for intra-hour and intra-day than day-ahead forecasts. By controlling for the key differences between forecasts, including location variables, our findings can be applied globally.}, language = {en} } @misc{JalboutGengeMuesgens, author = {Jalbout, Eddy and Genge, Lucien and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {H2Europe: an analysis of long-term hydrogen import-potentials from the MENA region}, series = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, journal = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-6654-0896-7}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921055}, pages = {1 -- 7}, abstract = {Our paper assesses the economic viability of green hydrogen exports from the middle east and north Africa to the EU in the long-term (for the year 2050). For this purpose, we simulate a techno-economic hydrogen supply chain based on generation from renewable energy sources. The chain of production, conversion, and transportation costs, in combination with potentials, yields a merit order of hydrogen supply. The paper focuses on one low-cost option for imports from the middle east and north Africa region. In addition, it provides a classification of additional options. We find that due to proximity, retrofitting and potentially even installing new pipelines from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia could provide nearly half the expected European demand of 60 million tons p.a. by 2050. Based on our assumptions, the costs would be around 2 €/kgH 2 .}, language = {en} } @incollection{MuesgensRadke, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Radke, Silvian}, title = {Warmer Lichtsturm - Umgang mit Erzeugungsspitzen aus PV und Wind : Arbeitspaket 1}, series = {Warmer Lichtsturm - Umgang mit Erzeugungsspitzen aus PV und Wind}, volume = {2024}, booktitle = {Warmer Lichtsturm - Umgang mit Erzeugungsspitzen aus PV und Wind}, pages = {13 -- 30}, abstract = {{\"U}ber das Scientific Advisory \& Project Board Die vorliegende Kurzstudie wurde von einem Konsortium entwickelt, das sich aus Mitgliedern des 50Hertz Scientific Advisory and Project Boards (SAPB) zusammensetzt. Das SAPB ist ein Kreis von Professorinnen und Professoren, die 50Hertz darin unterst{\"u}tzen, neue Denk- und L{\"o}sungsans{\"a}tze zu entwickeln und Erkenntnisse aus der Forschung - wo angemessen - in die Praxis von 50Hertz zu {\"u}bernehmen. Disclaimer Im Kontext der durch 50Hertz beauftragten SAPB-Studien forschen die beteiligten Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler frei und ergebnisoffen. Alle durch das Konsortium entwickelten Handlungsempfehlungen werden von 50Hertz eingehend gepr{\"u}ft und diskutiert, letztendlich entsprechen aber nicht alle Positionen denen von 50Hertz.}, language = {de} }