@techreport{MuesgensLienert, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Lienert, Martin}, title = {Voraussetzungen einer optimalen Integration erneuerbarer Energien in das Stromversorgungssystem}, address = {K{\"o}ln [u.a.]}, language = {de} } @techreport{MuesgensLienert, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Lienert, Martin}, title = {F{\"o}rderung der Direktvermarktung und der bedarfsgerechten Einspeisung von Strom aus Erneuerbaren Energien}, address = {K{\"o}ln [u.a.]}, pages = {VI, 133}, language = {de} } @techreport{MuesgensLienertHildebrandt, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Lienert, Martin and Hildebrandt, Elmar}, title = {{\"O}konomische Auswirkungen einer Laufzeitverl{\"a}ngerung deutscher Kernkraftwerke}, publisher = {BDI}, address = {K{\"o}ln [u.a.]}, language = {de} } @misc{MuesgensBade, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Bade, Alexander}, title = {Optimierungsstrategien im Portfoliomanagement von Gasversorgungsunternehmen}, series = {GWF : das Gas- und Wasserfach}, volume = {151}, journal = {GWF : das Gas- und Wasserfach}, number = {11}, issn = {0016-4909}, pages = {732 -- 736}, language = {de} } @misc{MuesgensPeek, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Peek, Markus}, title = {Sind Kapazit{\"a}tsm{\"a}rkte in Deutschland erforderlich? - Eine kritische Analyse vor dem Hintergrund der {\"o}konomischen Theorie}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r neues Energierecht}, volume = {15}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r neues Energierecht}, number = {6}, issn = {1434-3339}, pages = {576 -- 583}, language = {de} } @misc{MuesgensSteinhaus, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Steinhaus, Burkhard}, title = {Portfoliomanagement: Optimale Energiebeschaffung unter Beruecksichtigung von Risiken}, language = {de} } @misc{KreuzMuesgensWissen, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Wissen, Ralf}, title = {Was kosten die EEG-Bestandsanlagen bis 2030?}, series = {Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen : ET}, volume = {64}, journal = {Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen : ET}, number = {9}, pages = {60 -- 63}, language = {de} } @misc{MuesgensPeek, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Peek, Markus}, title = {Economics and Design of Balancing Power Markets in Germany}, series = {International Journal of Electrical Power \& Energy Systems}, journal = {International Journal of Electrical Power \& Energy Systems}, number = {55}, issn = {2070-3767}, pages = {392 -- 401}, language = {en} } @misc{MuesgensGrothe, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Grothe, Oliver}, title = {The Influence of Spatial Effects on Wind Power Revenues under Direct Marketing Rules}, series = {Energy Policy}, journal = {Energy Policy}, number = {58}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.004}, pages = {237 -- 247}, abstract = {In many countries, investments in renewable technologies have been accelerated by fixed feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewable energy sources (RES). While fixed tariffs accomplish this purpose, they lack incentives to align the RES production with price signals. Today, the intermittency of most RES increases the volatility of electricity prices and makes balancing supply and demand more complicated. Therefore, support schemes for RES have to be modified. Recently, Germany launched a scheme which gives wind power operators the monthly choice to either receive a fixed tariff or to risk a - subsidized - access to the wholesale electricity market. This paper quantifies revenues of wind turbines under this new subsidy and analyzes whether, when and where producers may profit. We find that the position of the wind turbine within the country significantly influences revenues in terms of EUR/MWh. The results are important for wind farm operators deciding whether electricity should be sold in the fixed feed-in tariff or in the wholesale market. However, no location is persistently, i.e., in every calendar month of the year, above the average. This limits the effect of the new subsidy scheme on investment locations and long term improvements in the aggregated wind feed-in profile.}, language = {en} } @misc{MuesgensOckenfelsPeek, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Ockenfels, Axel and Peek, Markus}, title = {Balancing Power Markets in Germany: Timing Matters}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, volume = {36}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, number = {1}, issn = {1866-2765}, pages = {1 -- 7}, abstract = {This paper analyzes timing issues on the German balancing power market. We focus the analysis on the length of the bidding period, i.e. the length of the time period a supplier has to provide balancing power capacities, and the question of how far before the beginning of a bidding period the auction should be carried out. We show that different load levels require different plants for the optimal provision of balancing power. In a longer bidding period, the power plants that have the lowest average cost in the bidding period are unlikely to be efficient in all hours of the bidding period. Hence, shortening bidding periods can increase efficiency. Furthermore, we show that an early commitment on a power plant's mode of operation (when uncertainty about resulting spot prices is still relatively high) also reduces efficiency. This suggests that the auction should be held relatively close to the beginning of the bidding period. Furthermore, we discuss some advantages of a liquid real time market.}, language = {en} } @misc{MuesgensSeeliger, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Seeliger, Andreas}, title = {Fracking in Deutschland und Europa - Hype oder Chance}, series = {ifo Schnelldienst}, volume = {66}, journal = {ifo Schnelldienst}, number = {24}, pages = {3 -- 10}, abstract = {Welche Chancen und Risiken ergeben sich aus der Schiefergasf{\"o}rderung in Europa und speziell in Deutschland?}, language = {de} } @incollection{MuesgensPeekSchulz, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Peek, Markus and Schulz, W.}, title = {Investigation on the Demand for Transmission Capacity - Investigation for France-Italy based on a Generation Dispatch Model}, series = {Analysis of Electricity Network Capacities and Identification of Congestion}, booktitle = {Analysis of Electricity Network Capacities and Identification of Congestion}, editor = {Haubrich, Hans-J{\"u}rgen}, publisher = {IAEW}, address = {Aachen}, language = {en} } @misc{GrotheMuellerMuesgens, author = {Grothe, Oliver and M{\"u}ller, Christoph and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Modellierung von Energiepreisrisiken durch Bindefristen bei {\"o}ffentlichen Ausschreibungen}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energie, Markt und Wettbewerb}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energie, Markt und Wettbewerb}, number = {6}, pages = {59 -- 62}, language = {de} } @misc{GrowitschMuesgens, author = {Growitsch, Christian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Die Liberalisierung des deutschen Strommarktes - ein Erfolgsmodell?}, series = {Wirtschaft im Wandel}, journal = {Wirtschaft im Wandel}, number = {12}, issn = {0947-3211}, pages = {383 -- 387}, language = {de} } @misc{Muesgens, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Quantifying Market power in the German Wholesale Electricity Market Using a Dynamic Multi-Regional Dispatch Model}, series = {Journal of Industrial Economics}, volume = {54}, journal = {Journal of Industrial Economics}, number = {4}, issn = {1467-6451}, pages = {471 -- 498}, abstract = {This paper quantifies the degree of market power in the German wholesale electricity market. A dispatch model simulates competitive marginal costs. In addition to common input factors like plant capacities, fuel prices and load structures, the model also incorporates international power exchange and dynamic effects like start-up costs and hydro storage plant dispatch. The simulated prices are subsequently used as a benchmark for observed electricity prices. The analysis reveals significant market power in the German electricity market, mainly exhibited during peak periods. Producer surplus is also increased significantly due to strategic behavior.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{BartelsMuesgens, author = {Bartels, Michael and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Do Technology Specific CO2-Allocations Distort Investments?}, series = {Securing energy in insecure times, 29th IAEE International Conference, 7-10 June 2006 in Potsdam}, booktitle = {Securing energy in insecure times, 29th IAEE International Conference, 7-10 June 2006 in Potsdam}, publisher = {IAEE}, address = {Cleveland}, pages = {367 -- 374}, language = {en} } @misc{GrowitschMuesgens, author = {Growitsch, Christian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {The Economics of Restructuring the German Electricity Sector}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, volume = {29}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, number = {3}, issn = {0343-5377}, pages = {221 -- 230}, abstract = {The debate about the development of German electricity prices after the liberalization of energy markets in 1998 raises the question of failures in market restructuring. However, a general statement would be misleading for two main reasons. Firstly, the price development, analyzed for the exemplary case of household prices, shows significant differences among the stages of the value chain. Secondly, the underlying cost structure might have changed from 1998 to 2004. While such effects can be expected to level out over time, they can distort the comparison of a small period of observation. For these reasons, we analyzed the different price components at a detailed level, finding a considerable price reduction of about 32\% in generation and a much lower reduction of 13\% in transmission and distribution tariffs. These decreases have been mostly compensated by a significant increase in taxes and subsidies (+56\%).}, language = {en} } @misc{MuesgensPeichertPerneretal., author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Peichert, Patrick and Perner, Jens and Riechmann, Christoph and Wissen, Ralf}, title = {Emissionshandel oder F{\"o}rderung Erneuerbarer in Europa: Wer sollte langfristig das Steuer {\"u}bernehmen?}, series = {ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen}, journal = {ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen}, number = {9}, issn = {0720-6240}, pages = {8 -- 12}, language = {de} } @incollection{MuesgensSeeliger, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Seeliger, Andreas}, title = {Nicht-konventionelle Erdgasvorkommen in den USA und ihre Auswirkungen auf Europa}, series = {Energie f{\"u}r Deutschland 2013 : Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext}, booktitle = {Energie f{\"u}r Deutschland 2013 : Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext}, publisher = {Weltenergierat - Deutschland e.V.}, address = {Berlin}, pages = {1 -- 31}, language = {de} } @misc{MuesgensBartels, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Bartels, Michael}, title = {Is a Cap-and-Trade System always efficient? The Case of New Entrants in the Emission Trading System of the EU}, series = {Journal of Energy Engineering}, volume = {134}, journal = {Journal of Energy Engineering}, number = {2}, issn = {0733-9402}, pages = {33 -- 39}, language = {en} } @misc{KuntzMuesgens, author = {Kuntz, Ludwig and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Modelling Start-Up Costs of Multiple Technologies in Electricity Markets}, series = {Mathematical Methods of Operations Research}, volume = {66}, journal = {Mathematical Methods of Operations Research}, number = {1}, issn = {1432-2994}, doi = {10.1007/s00186-007-0148-y}, pages = {21 -- 32}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KaesoMuesgensGrothe, author = {K{\"a}so, Mathias and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Grothe, Oliver}, title = {Dynamic Forecast Combinations of Improved Individual Forecasts for the Prediction of Wind Energy}, series = {IEEE Conference Proceedings EEM 2016}, booktitle = {IEEE Conference Proceedings EEM 2016}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5090-1298-5}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2016.7521228}, pages = {5}, abstract = {We study the prediction performance of different improved individual wind energy forecasts in various static and dynamic ombination processes. To this end, we develop a combined error minimization model (CEMM) based on nonlinear functions. This approach reflects the nonlinear nature of weather and especially of wind energy prediction problems. Based on the model, we construct significantly improved individual forecasts. The corresponding time dependent model coefficients are determined by dynamic OLS (ordinary least squares) regression and Kalman filter methods. The former method shows a slightly better performance than the Kalman filter based approaches. Further improvements can be achieved by a combination of these improved wind energy forecasts. In this case, the combination coefficients are calculated from a static and two dynamic OLS regressions. The resulting forecasts are characterized by a further increased prediction accuracy compared to the combination of the uncorrected forecast data and can outperform a given benchmark.}, language = {en} } @misc{Muesgens, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Equilibrium prices and investment in electricity systems with CO₂-emission trading and high shares of renewable energies}, series = {Energy Economics}, volume = {86}, journal = {Energy Economics}, issn = {0140-9883}, doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2018.07.028}, pages = {8}, language = {en} } @misc{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {The German Energiewende and its Roll-Out of Renewable Energies: An Economic Perspective}, series = {Frontiers in Energy}, volume = {11}, journal = {Frontiers in Energy}, number = {2}, issn = {2095-1698}, doi = {10.1007/s11708-017-0467-5}, pages = {126 -- 134}, language = {en} } @incollection{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Energiewirtschaft - Ver{\"a}nderung und Wandel}, series = {Kommunikation erneuerbarer Energieversorgung}, booktitle = {Kommunikation erneuerbarer Energieversorgung}, editor = {Hipp, Christiane and Kaelber, Claus and M{\"u}ller, Jens}, publisher = {e-transform}, address = {Augsburg}, pages = {30 -- 37}, language = {de} } @techreport{Muesgens, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Sektorziele verteuern den Klimaschutz und behindern die Sektorenkopplung}, publisher = {acatech - Deutsche Akademie der Technikwissenschaften}, address = {Berlin}, language = {de} } @misc{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Measuring the cost of renewable energy in Germany}, series = {The Electricity Journal}, volume = {31}, journal = {The Electricity Journal}, number = {4}, issn = {1040-6190}, pages = {29 -- 33}, abstract = {Electricity generation from renewable energy is increasing globally. However, in most electricity systems this growth comes at a price in the form of increased costs. This paper quantifies the costs for renewable energy installations built in Germany between 2000 and 2011. Our analysis sheds light on the 'Energiewende' in Germany, which is a front runner in the worldwide renewables rollout. To evaluate cost, benefits and policy instruments, the methodology can also be applied to other countries.}, language = {en} } @misc{EngelhornMuesgens, author = {Engelhorn, Thorsten and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {How to estimate wind-turbine infeed with incomplete stock data: A general framework with an application to turbine-specific market values in Germany}, series = {Energy Economics}, volume = {72}, journal = {Energy Economics}, issn = {0140-9883}, pages = {542 -- 557}, abstract = {This paper analyses market values of wind energy converters at the individual turbine level on a very large scale. Such an analysis is usually precluded by the lack of detailed public data on the stock of wind turbines. We therefore present a general method to estimate incomplete turbine stock data and generate hourly yields of individual turbines based on completed turbine stock data and highly disaggregated hourly wind speed data. On this basis, we calculate hourly infeed and annual market values of up to 25,700 wind turbines in Germany from 2005 to 2015. We show the spread in market values on turbine level, quantify regional differences and discuss the effect of turbine age on market values. We show that turbines in central Germany have, on average, lower market values than turbines in the north, south or far west of Germany. Furthermore, we show that modern turbines reach higher market values than older turbines. We also analyse the drivers of market values, differentiating between infeed-price correlation and standard deviation.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities?}, publisher = {Brandenburgische Technische Universit{\"a}t}, address = {Cottbus ; Senftenberg}, pages = {30}, abstract = {Asymmetric cost pass-through between crude oil and retail fuel prices "Rockets and Feathers" has been analysed for different countries and time periods. However, few studies have been conducted for the German market. Furthermore, this study differentiates between company types and regions in this context. We compare price setting behaviour of independent and major brand stations following oil price changes. Furthermore, we differentiate between regions with higher and lower population densities. We establish an error correction model with a novel data set from the years 2011 to 2012. Our results confirm significant differences between price setting behaviour after oil price changes of major brand stations and other stations.}, language = {en} } @misc{BatzLineiroMuesgens, author = {Batz Li{\~n}eiro, Taimyra and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {A first analysis of the photovoltaic auction program in Germany}, series = {16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, journal = {16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, isbn = {978-1-7281-1257-2}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2019.8916472}, pages = {5}, language = {en} } @techreport{WeyerMuesgens, author = {Weyer, Hartmut and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Netzengp{\"a}sse als Herausforderung f{\"u}r das Stromversorgungssystem. Regelungsfelder, Status quo und Handlungsoptionen}, address = {M{\"u}nchen}, isbn = {978-3-9820053-2-4}, pages = {98}, language = {de} } @techreport{RiepinJansenStaffelletal., author = {Riepin, Iegor and Jansen, Malte and Staffell, Iain and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {The era of 'negative-subsidy' offshore wind power has almost arrived}, language = {en} } @misc{BatzLineiroMuesgens, author = {Batz Li{\~n}eiro, Taimyra and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Evaluating the German PV auction program: The secrets of individual bids revealed}, series = {Energy Policy}, journal = {Energy Policy}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112618}, abstract = {Auctions have become the primary instrument for promoting renewable energy around the world. However, the data published on such auctions are typically limited to aggregated information (e.g., total awarded capacity, average payments). These data constraints hinder the evaluation of realisation rates and other relevant auction dynamics. In this study, we present an algorithm to overcome these data limitations in German renewable energy auction programme by combining publicly available information from four different databases. We apply it to the German solar auction programme and evaluate auctions using quantitative methods. We calculate realisation rates and—using correlation and regression analysis—explore the impact of PV module prices, competition, and project and developer characteristics on project realisation and bid values. Our results confirm that the German auctions were effective. We also found that project realisation took, on average, 1.5 years (with 28\% of projects finished late and incurring a financial penalty), nearly half of projects changed location before completion (again, incurring a financial penalty) and small and inexperienced developers could successfully participate in auctions.}, language = {en} } @misc{RiepinMoebiusMuesgens, author = {Riepin, Iegor and M{\"o}bius, Thomas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Modelling uncertainty in coupled electricity and gas systems - is it worth the effort?}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {285}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116363}, pages = {14}, abstract = {The interdependence of electricity and natural gas markets is becoming a major topic in energy research. Integrated energy models are used to assist decision-making for businesses and policymakers addressing challenges of energy transition and climate change. The analysis of complex energy systems requires large-scale models, which are based on extensive databases, intertemporal dynamics and a multitude of decision variables. Integrating such energy system models results in increased system complexity. This complexity poses a challenge for energy modellers to address multiple uncertainties that affect both markets. Stochastic optimisation approaches enable an adequate consideration of uncertainties in investment and operation planning; however, stochastic modelling of integrated large-scale energy systems further scales the level of complexity. In this paper, we combine integrated and stochastic optimisation problems and parametrise our model for European electricity and gas markets. We analyse and compare the impact of uncertain input parameters, such as gas and electricity demand, renewable energy capacities and fuel and CO2 prices, on the quality of the solution obtained in the integrated optimisation problem. Our results quantify the value of encoding uncertainty as a part of a model. While the methodological contribution should be of interest for energy modellers, our findings are relevant for industry experts and stakeholders with an empirical interest in the European energy system.}, language = {en} } @misc{EngelhornMuesgens, author = {Engelhorn, Thorsten and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Why is Germany's energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation}, series = {Resource and Energy Economics}, volume = {65}, journal = {Resource and Energy Economics}, issn = {1873-0221}, doi = {10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101241}, pages = {18}, abstract = {This paper discusses the efficiency of promotion schemes for renewable energy sources using the example of onshore wind energy in Germany. We analyse whether the scheme incentivised a cost-minimal capacity build-up by developing a model to derive two cost-minimal benchmark scenarios, which are then compared to the historical capacity build-up between 1995 and 2015. The costs of the two cost-minimising benchmark scenarios are significantly lower than those of the historical build-up. The benchmark cost reduction largely stems from greater efficiency—fewer turbines are being constructed overall but they are being placed at better wind sites so the annual production of wind energy remains unchanged. Hence, aggregated turbine land use is also significantly down in these scenarios. Furthermore, we compare costs for consumers, as protecting consumers from price discrimination of producers is sometimes used to justify higher payments for low-wind sites. However, our results show that the efficiency gain from building at high wind sites outweighs the distributional effect, even from a consumer's perspective.}, language = {en} } @misc{AntweilerMuesgens, author = {Antweiler, Werner and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {On the long-term merit order effect of renewable energies}, series = {Energy Economics}, volume = {99}, journal = {Energy Economics}, issn = {0140-9883}, doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105275}, pages = {19}, abstract = {The merit order effect describes the lowering of the average wholesale electricity price due to increased capacity of renewable energies. This effect has been observed in many places. While it is beneficial for consumers, it has triggered concerns about the economic viability of legacy plants. Is this merit order effect a permanent feature of high shares of renewable energy, or merely a transitory phase? This article develops a simple theoretical model to shed light on this question. It introduces intermittent renewable energies into a conventional mix of base load and peak load and investigates the effect when base and peak load remain unchanged in the short-term, and when they fully adjust in the long-term. We find that the merit order effect is a temporary phenomenon that is caused by the slow pace of capacity adjustments. We also find that the introduction of renewables has a mild beneficial long-term effect when base load is provided monopolistically, as renewables compete with base load to a limited extent. Consequently, concerns about the adverse consequences for conventional power plants resulting from renewable capacity are only partially justified. While in the short-term the generation portfolio suffers from "stranded assets", market forces will gradually reduce overcapacity. We also confirm that renewable expansion can be complemented by energy-only markets to incentivize efficient investment in conventional capacity.}, language = {en} } @misc{RiepinMuesgens, author = {Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Seasonal flexibility in the European natural gas market}, series = {The Energy Journal}, volume = {43}, journal = {The Energy Journal}, number = {1}, issn = {1944-9089}, doi = {10.5547/01956574.43.1.irie}, pages = {117 -- 138}, abstract = {This paper focuses on seasonal demand swings in the European natural gas market. We quantify and compare the role of different flexibility options (domestic production, gas storage, and pipeline and LNG imports) to assess European demand fluctuations in monthly resolution. We contribute to the existing literature on seasonal flexibility by addressing the problem with a mathematical gas market optimization model. Our paper provides valuable empirical insights into the decline of gas production in northwestern Europe. Furthermore, we focus on how specific flexibility features differ between pipeline supplies and LNG supplies and between gas imports and storage dispatch. In terms of methodology, we construct a bottom-up market optimization model and publish the complete source code (which is uncommon for gas market models). Furthermore, we propose a new metric—the scaled coefficient of variation—to quantify the importance of supply sources for seasonal flexibility provision.}, language = {en} } @misc{SgarciuScholzMuesgens, author = {Sgarciu, Smaranda and Scholz, Daniel and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {How CO2 prices accelerate decarbonisation - The case of coal-fired generation in Germany}, series = {Energy Policy}, volume = {173}, journal = {Energy Policy}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113375}, abstract = {This paper analyses the potential impact of the world's two main coal phase-out instruments: 1) direct regulatory intervention restricting the operation of existing coal-fired generation capacity and prohibiting investment in new capacity and 2) market-based CO2-pricing instruments that make emission-intensive coal-fired generation less competitive. We quantify these instruments' potential effects in the empirical setting of Germany, where both instruments are employed concurrently. However, this paper's approach and methodology can be applied in any jurisdiction or energy system worldwide. Our paper provides quantitative results with a pan-European partial-equilibrium electricity system model. The model applies an innovative three-step approach. Step 1 solves an investment and dispatch problem with reduced technical and temporal complexity for European countries. Step 2 computes the dispatch problem at a bihourly resolution and step 3 solves the investment and dispatch problem for Germany with increased technical complexity. Our results confirm that both a regulated phase-out as well as a price on CO2 emissions can reduce the amount of coal-fired generation in an electricity system. If CO2 prices remain at current levels, coal-fired power plants leave the market significantly before the regulated phase-out date, reducing demand for employees in the Lusatian lignite industry. Regions and federal governments should take this finding into account when planning and preparing for structural change.}, language = {en} } @misc{MoebiusWatermeyerGrotheetal., author = {M{\"o}bius, Thomas and Watermeyer, Mira and Grothe, Oliver and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Enhancing energy system models using better load forecasts}, series = {Energy Systems}, journal = {Energy Systems}, issn = {1868-3975}, doi = {10.1007/s12667-023-00590-3}, pages = {1 -- 30}, abstract = {Since energy system models require a large amount of technical and economic data, their quality significantly affects the reliability of the results. However, some publicly available data sets, such as the transmission system operators' day-ahead load forecasts, are known to be biased and inaccurate, leading to lower energy system model performance. We propose a time series model that enhances the accuracy of transmission system operators' load forecast data in real-time, using only the load forecast error's history as input. We further present an energy system model developed specifically for price forecasts of the short-term day-ahead market. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved load data as input by applying it to this model, which shows a strong reduction in pricing errors, particularly during periods of high prices and tight markets. Our results highlight the potential of our method the enhance the accuracy of energy system models using improved input data.}, language = {en} } @misc{GengeSchellerMuesgens, author = {Genge, Lucien and Scheller, Fabian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Supply costs of green chemical energy carriers at the European border: A meta-analysis}, series = {International Journal of Hydrogen Energy}, volume = {48}, journal = {International Journal of Hydrogen Energy}, number = {98}, issn = {0360-3199}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.06.180}, pages = {38766 -- 38781}, abstract = {Importing green chemical energy carriers is crucial for meeting European climate targets. However, estimating the costs of supplying these energy carriers to Europe remains challenging, leading to a wide range of reported supply-cost estimates. This study analyzes the estimated supply costs of green chemical energy carriers at the European border using a dataset of 1050 data points from 30 studies. The results reveal significant variations in supply costs, with a projected four-fold difference in 2030 and a five-fold difference in 2050 across all energy carriers. The main drivers of cost differences are varying production costs, particularly influenced by the weighted average costs of capital and capital expenditures of renewable energy sources, electrolyzers, and carrier-specific conversion processes. Transport costs also contribute to variations, mainly influenced by the choice of energy carrier and the weighted average costs of capital. To optimize cost-efficiency and sustainability in the chemical energy carrier sector, this paper recommends prioritizing transparency and sensitivity analyses of key input parameters, classifying energy carriers based on technological and economic status, and encouraging research and development to reduce production costs.}, language = {en} } @misc{MoebiusRiepinMuesgensetal., author = {M{\"o}bius, Thomas and Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and van der Weijde, Adriaan H.}, title = {Risk aversion and flexibility options in electricity markets}, series = {Energy Economics}, volume = {126}, journal = {Energy Economics}, issn = {0140-9883}, abstract = {Investments in electricity transmission and generation capacity must be made despite significant uncertainty about the future developments. The sources of this uncertainty include, among others, the future levels and spatiotemporal distribution of electricity demand, fuel costs and future energy policy. In recent years, these uncertainties have increased due to the ongoing evolution of supply- and demand-side technologies and rapid policy changes designed to encourage a transition to low-carbon energy systems. Because transmission and generation investments have long lead times and are difficult to reverse, they are subject to a considerable - and arguably growing - amount of risk.}, language = {en} } @misc{JalboutGengeRiepinetal., author = {Jalbout, Eddy and Genge, Lucien and Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {What do we know about green hydrogen supply costs?}, series = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, journal = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-6654-0896-7}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921127}, pages = {1 -- 7}, abstract = {This paper is set up to answer the question: What do we know about future hydrogen import costs on the European border? Our work focuses on breaking down, structuring and analysing the body of literature on hydrogen supply chains. We provide a comprehensive analysis on (i) What ranges of costs exist in the literature for specific steps of hydrogen supply chains? (ii) Which assumptions show the highest uncertainty? (iii) Related, what assumption seems to have the most substantial effect on the resulting EUR/kgH2 import cost estimate? While we narrow our discussion focus on North Africa and Australia to Europe in 2050, we hope policymakers, research fellows and energy-sector stakeholders around the globe might be interested in our results.}, language = {en} } @misc{BerneckerRiepinMuesgens, author = {Bernecker, Maximilian and Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Modeling of Extreme Weather Events—Towards Resilient Transmission Expansion Planning}, series = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, journal = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-6654-0896-7}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921145}, pages = {1 -- 7}, abstract = {In this paper, we endogenously compute worst-case weather events in a transmission system expansion planning problem using the robust optimization approach. Mathematically, we formulate a three-level mixed-integer optimization problem, which we convert to a bi-level problem via the strong duality concept. We solve the problem using a constraint-and-column generation algorithm. We use cardinality-constrained uncertainty sets to model the effects of extreme weather realizations on supply from renewable generators.}, language = {en} } @misc{RiepinSchmidtBaringoetal., author = {Riepin, Iegor and Schmidt, Matthew and Baringo, Luis and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Adaptive robust optimization for European strategic gas infrastructure planning}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {324}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119686}, abstract = {An adaptive robust optimization model for a gas transmission expansion problem. Analysis of Projects of Common Interests' value in maintaining gas system resilience. Endogenous realizations of cold-winter demand spikes and supply shortages. Publicly available source code for the entire project.}, language = {en} } @misc{HoffmannZiemannPenskeetal., author = {Hoffmann, Christin and Ziemann, Niklas and Penske, Franziska and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {The value of secure electricity supply for increasing acceptance of green hydrogen - First experimental evidence from the virtual reality lab}, series = {19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 06-08 June 2023, Lappeenranta, Finland}, journal = {19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 06-08 June 2023, Lappeenranta, Finland}, isbn = {979-8-3503-1258-4}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161844}, pages = {9}, abstract = {To unlock the high potential of green hydrogen in reaching the ambitious 1.5 °C goal declared by the Paris Agreement, enormous (public) investments are needed. Social acceptance of these investments is required in order to implement hydrogen technologies as fast and efficiently as possible. This study investigates which benefits associated with green hydrogen foster its social acceptance. Using a between-subject design, we implement two different treatments. Both treatments have in common that the participants experience the transformation into a hydrogen economy in a virtual reality scenario. In "Info Security of Supply", we provide the participants information about the benefits of green hydrogen regarding the security of energy supply and climate protection. In Control, we inform them only about the benefits of climate protection. Subsequently, the participants decide about the financial support of a hydrogen project. Our preliminary results show a higher support if the focus is solely on the positive impact of green hydrogen for climate protection.}, language = {en} } @misc{JansenBeiterRiepinetal., author = {Jansen, Malte and Beiter, Philipp and Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Guajardo-Fajardo, Victor Juarez and Staffell, Iain and Bulder, Bernard and Kitzing, Lena}, title = {Policy choices and outcomes for the competitive procurement of offshore wind energy globally}, series = {Energy Policy}, volume = {167}, journal = {Energy Policy}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113000}, abstract = {Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes.}, language = {en} } @misc{NguyenMuesgens, author = {Nguyen, Thi Ngoc and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {323}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119603}, abstract = {In this paper, 180 papers on photovoltaic (PV) output forecasting were reviewed and a database of forecast errors was extracted for statistical analysis. The paper shows that among the forecast models, hybrid models are most likely to become the primary form of PV output forecasting in the future. The use of data processing techniques is positively correlated with the forecast quality, while the lengths of the forecast horizons and out-of-sample test sets have negative effects on the forecast accuracy. The paper also found that the use of data normalization, the wavelet transform, and the inclusion of clear sky index and numerical weather prediction variables are the most effective data processing techniques. Furthermore, the paper found some evidence of "cherry picking" in the reporting of errors and we recommend that the test sets be at least one year long to avoid any distortion in the performance of the models.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MuesgensRiepin, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Riepin, Iegor}, title = {Is Offshore Already Competitive? Analyzing German Offshore Wind Auctions}, series = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, booktitle = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5386-1488-4}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2018.8469851}, pages = {6}, abstract = {Two German offshore wind auctions in 2017 and 2018 saw more than 50\% of winning capacity with "zero bids". The nature of these surprisingly low bids is, however, not yet clear. In our paper, we discuss four hypotheses for possible causes for the auction results: (i) the bids are expected to be profitable due to market development and technological progress, (ii) bids can be perceived as "options to build" that can be realized if projects are profitable, (iii) bids are adjusted to secure grid access, and (iv) other long term reasons not primarily driven by the profitability of the winning bids. Our results suggest that there is evidence for all hypotheses to influence the decision making of auction bidders. In fact, we suggest to see the four hypothesis as cumulative value components, which reveal the true value of winning the auction at "zero cost" in aggregate.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{RiepinMoebiusMuesgens, author = {Riepin, Iegor and M{\"o}bius, Thomas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Integrated Electricity and Gas Market Modeling - Effects of Gas Demand Uncertainty}, series = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, booktitle = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5386-1488-4}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2018.8469790}, pages = {5}, abstract = {This paper develops an integrated fundamental investment model which considers both the gas and electricity sector. Furthermore, we adopt the theory of stochastic programming with recourse in the combined model to account for uncertainty in the gas market. This approach enables us to analyze how uncertain gas demand in other sectors affects decisions to invest in electricity generation capacities. We find an overall decrease and a reallocation of investments in gas-fired power plants. We also quantify the expected costs of ignoring uncertainty.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KreuzbergMuesgens, author = {Kreuzberg, Martin and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Der Einfluss der Speicherkraftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland - Eine modellgest{\"u}tzte Analyse}, series = {2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien}, booktitle = {2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien}, publisher = {Institut f{\"u}r Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft}, address = {Wien}, language = {de} }