TY - GEN A1 - Seserman, Diana-Maria A1 - Pohle, Ina A1 - Veste, Maik A1 - Freese, Dirk T1 - Growth vulnerability of hybrid-poplar and black locust to prospective climatic changes T2 - 4th World Congress on Agroforestry: Strengthening links between science, society and policy. 20-22 May 2019, Montpellier, France N2 - In Brandenburg, eastern Germany, prospective climate changes imply extreme weather events, increasing annual temperature, and decreasing summer precipitation. Since alley-cropping systems (ACS) have a broad planning horizon, appraising their sustainability and efficiency under changing climate conditions is crucial for forthcoming risk assessments and adaptation scenarios. Consequently, this combined experimental and simulation study investigated the growth vulnerability of poplar clone “Max I” (Populus nigra L. x P. maximowiczii Henry) and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) short rotation coppices in an ACS established in Brandenburg to a considerable spectrum of weather conditions and long term climate change, from 2015 to the end of 2054. The investigation employed (i) Yield-SAFE, a biophysical, process-based model to simulate the above-ground tree woody biomass and (ii) 100 realisations of the statistical regional climate model STAR 2K. In the most optimistic sequence of events pertaining to air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation, 35% more woody biomass would be achieved by poplar and 43% by black locust in the last period compared to the base period. Alternatively, in the most pessimistic circumstances, 54% less woody biomass would be rendered by poplar and 47% by black locust. Our findings corroborated the tree growth vulnerability to prospective climatic changes, particularly to changes in water availability. KW - Climatic impacts, Poplar, Black locust, Biomass, Yield-SAFE Y1 - 2019 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-UBICO/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24416 UR - https://www.alphavisa.com/agroforestry/2019/documents/Agroforestry2019-Book-of-Abstract-v1.pdf UR - https://agroforestry2019.cirad.fr/replay/book-of-abstracts SP - 65 EP - 65 ER -