Die vorliegende Arbeit behandelt das Problem der literarhistorischen Zuordnung
J. R. R. Tolkiens in die literarische Strömung des Modernismus. Da Tolkien bis zum
heutigen Zeitpunkt von der Literaturwissenschaft vor allem als Kinder-, Jugend- oder
Fantaysautor, von der Tolkienforschung hingegen unter anderem als mediävistischer
Autor gesehen wird, stellt die vorliegende Arbeit diese Sichtweisen in Frage.
We develop a novel financial market model in which the stock markets of two countries
are linked via and with the foreign exchange market. To be precise, there are domestic
and foreign speculators in each of the two stock markets which rely either on linear
technical or linear fundamental trading strategies to determine their orders. Since
foreign stock market speculators require foreign currency to conduct their trades, all
three markets are connected. Our setup entails a natural nonlinearity which may cause
persistent endogenous price dynamics. Moreover, we analytically show that market
interactions can destabilize the model’s fundamental steady state.
In the framework of small-scale agent-based financial market models, the paper starts
out from the concept of structural stochastic volatility, which derives from different noise
levels in the demand of fundamentalists and chartists and the time-varying market shares
of the two groups. It advances several different specifications of the endogenous switching
between the trading strategies and then estimates these models by the method of simulated
moments (MSM), where the choice of the moments reflects the basic stylized facts
of the daily returns of a stock market index. In addition to the standard version of MSM
with a quadratic loss function, we also take into account how often a great number of
Monte Carlo simulation runs happen to yield moments that are all contained within their
empirical confidence intervals. The model contest along these lines reveals a strong role
for a (tamed) herding component. The quantitative performance of the winner model is
so good that it may provide a standard for future research.
The phenomenon of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose is called
Political Business Cycles (PBC). Using policy control economic instruments, such as fiscal and monetary
instruments, governments may manipulate the economy to gain electoral advantage by producing growth
and decreasing unemployment before elections.
Earlier research on PBC in Albania found clear evidence of fiscal expansion before elections. In addition
to increased income from taxes and borrowing, another source of financing the increased fiscal expansion
in transition countries may be income from privatization, which is also the object of the analysis of this
paper. In our analysis we apply standard econometric approach, used widely for research related to PBC.
We test if income from privatization increases before elections.
We find statistically significant increase of income from privatization before general (parliamentary)
elections, which may lead us to conclude that one of the reasons may be to finance increased expenditures
before elections. Another motivation, behind this behavior of the incumbent, may be rent – seeking.
These results are of particular interest, as it is for the first time that income from privatization is analyzed
in conjunction with PBC.
Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current
account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two
aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of
crises in terms of economic growth and controls via a treatment type model for possible sample
selection governing the occurrence of crises in order to estimate the impact on economic
growth correctly. The applied empirical models allow for rich intertemporal dependencies
via serially correlated errors and capture latent country specific heterogeneity via random
coefficients. For accurate estimation of the treatment type model a simulated maximum
likelihood approach employing efficient importance sampling is used. The results reveal significant
costs in terms of economic growth for both crises. Costs for reversals are linked
to country specific variables, while costs for currency crises are not. Furthermore, shocks
explaining current account reversals and growth show strong significant positive correlation.
This article explores the influence of competitive conditions on the
evolutionary fitness of different risk preferences. As a practical example, the
professional competition between fund managers is considered. To explore how
different settings of competition parameters, the exclusion rate and the exclusion
interval, affect individual investment behavior, an evolutionary model based on a
genetic algorithm is developed. The simulation experiments indicate that the
influence of competitve conditions on investment behavior and attitudes towards risk
is significant. What is alarming is that intense competitive pressure generates riskseeking
behavior and undermines the predominance of the most skilled.