The paper examines the relationship between the political system and the public administration
modernization in the Hungarian transition. Its intention is to point out that there are various
shortcuts and bottlenecks of the Hungarian modernization and the cumulative impacts of these
deficiencies have caused characteristic difference of the Hungarian modernization trajectory
from the typical Western trajectories.
In this paper we integrate heterogeneous inflation expectations into a simple monetary
model. Guided by empirical evidence we assume that boundedly rational agents, selecting
between extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to predict the future inflation rate,
prefer rules that have produced low prediction errors in the past. We show that integrating
this behavioral expectation formation process into the monetary model leads to the
possibility of endogenous macroeconomic dynamics. For instance, our model replicates
certain empirical regularities such as irregular growth cycles or inflation persistence.
Moreover, we observe multi-stability via a Chenciner bifurcation.
The paper enlightens popular part of the budget policy – deficit finance. In the
process of securing economic conditions to surpass the current economic crises,
the governments all over the world incline towards debt deficit finance. The
intention is to describe the implications such as multiplier effect, crowding out
effect, correlation between budget and trade deficit. One of them are positive, they
increase the aggregate demand and national income, other negative in term that
they crowd out the private sector from the capital market under increased demand
for loanable funds.
Macedonia's economy was not left behind by the global economic crisis as the
country's macroeconomic policymakers had hoped! Certainly, an economy open at
all and with a high degree of direct dependence on European and global economies
in general should not be saved by the crisis in financial top and then the global
economic. Transmission of negative effects but came a little late economic shocks
in the periphery are often stronger than the epicenter. In these circumstances
macroeconomic policymakers should be more proactive, coherent and dynamic
design of the following measures and economic policies increasingly based on
relevant research and analysis (decision making based on research and analysis).
Therefore, this analysis aims to develop and study in detail the measures in terms of
economy, Science and Technology of Macedonia in order to suggest a more
effective policy in accordance with business cycles, always comparing the
economic measures in other states with which the country has advanced reports on
economic but referring to specific local economic conditions. Accordingly the
specific activities recommended for further action.
My doctoral thesis is one of the few existing studies on post-retirement employment in Germany. It is the first study which implements a longitudinal micro-macro perspective. My research contributes new insights to the relationship of individuals' and firms' attributes and post-retirement employment. Another contribution to literature is the examination of actual employment behavior in retirement instead of only focusing on expectations of how people think they would behave once they are retired. The theoretical model shoes how changes within the society influences individual behavior and the development of post-retirement employment as one type within the concept of emerging patchwork biographies in society. By explaining individual behavior regarding post-retirement employment my research identifies attributes which can be used by public policy to support changes within the society. On the micro-level I pursue a two-stage design. First, I analyze the probability of pursuing post-retirement employment. Conditional on being in the labor force in retirement, in the second stage, I study transition times into different post-retirement jobs trajectories. In sum, my research shows that a considerable portion of retirees in Germany are employed. The probability of holding a post-retirement job is declining with increasing pension incomes. Retirees with higher labor market attachment show the highest probabilities of staying in their work environment after retirement. In contrast, retirees who are exposed to old age poverty are more likely to switch their working environments in retirement. I show that motivations for post-retirement employment are not mutually exclusive. This indicates that the political debate on post-retirement employment has to shift from discussing the reason for post-retirement employment, towards a debate about the heterogeneity of the workforce beyond retirement.
The phenomena of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral
purpose are called Political Business Cycles (PBC), introduced by Nordhaus (1975). Using
policy control economic instruments, as fiscal and monetary instruments, government may
manipulate the economy to gain electoral advantage by producing growth and decreasing
unemployment before elections.
In addition to increased public expenditures, also the production/supply of certain
publicly provided goods may score improvements. In Albania, production and supply of
electricity (for the time span of our analyzes) was controlled by KESH (Korporata
Energjitike Shqiptare – Albanian Energy Corporation) which is a quasi- monopoly in the
supply of electricity in Albania, and it is publicly run. Throughout the transition, supply of
electricity, due to various technical and economic reasons, has not been stable, and
characterized by systematic interruption for households and businesses users, affecting
their well-being and performance (electricity is a main source of energy for households,
including heating and cooking). Therefore, it seems so that there is an incentive and
rationale for the incumbent to use also the provision of electricity to impress the voters
before elections, beside of the classical instruments of expenditures.
In this paper we analyze consumption, production and import of electricity in Albania.
Our hypothesis is that before elections, electricity consumption may increase above usual
levels, followed by a contraction after elections. In our analysis we use modern standard
econometric approach, used widely for research related to PBC. By ARMA modelling it is
possible to prove if elections can explain changes in electricity production, in addition to
the past history of the variable and the random error term.
Within the ideal model of pragma-dialectics discussants act rationally and without any time limits. A rhetorical model of argumentation can be derived by including human restrictions. In this practical model (i.e. not ideal model) discussants have to resolve a difference of opinion within limited time, on the basis of incomplete information, in the awareness of their restricted rationality, and by means of a non-perfect language. They try to maximize their long-term success in persuading the audience under the given limitations. Rhetoric provides means for coping with these limitations by way of following a practically applied rationality.
To investigate the interrater reliability of stroboscopy evaluations assessed using Poburka's Stroboscopy Evaluation Rating Form (SERF).
Single-factor experiment with repeated measures on the same element.
Evaluations of nine experts pertaining to 68 stroboscopy recordings and 16 SERF variables were analyzed. For the 14 SERF variables possessing interval scale level, interrater reliability was investigated using the intraclass correlations for absolute agreement (ICC-a) and consistency (ICC-c). ICCs-c were computed for both original values and values standardized with respect to raters' means and standard deviations (ipsative values). For the two nominally scaled SERF variables, "vertical level" and "glottal closure" interrater reliability was investigated using kappa coefficients.
For evaluations of single raters, ICCs-a ranged from 0.32 to 0.71, ICCs-c for original values from 0.41 to 0.72, and ICCs-c for ipsative values from 0.43 to 0.72. For mean evaluations of two raters, the corresponding values were 0.48 to 0.83 for ICCs-a, 0.58 to 0.84 for ICCs-c for original values, and 0.60 to 0.84 for ICCs-c for ipsative values. The interval scale variables with the lowest interrater reliabilities were phase closure, phase symmetry, and regularity. The kappa coefficients for vertical level and glottal closure were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively.
The interrater reliabilities for vertical level, glottal closure, phase closure, phase symmetry, and regularity are so low that these variables should not be assessed via stroboscopy. For the remaining variables, adequate reliability can be obtained by aggregating evaluations from at least two raters.
Two reading literacy/text comprehension tests with different demands (on-line comprehension vs. memory-based comprehension) were administered to 6,104 15-year-old students from all German states and school types. The combined and specific effects of proximal and distal variables from small-scale psychological research as well as from large-scale educational studies on each text comprehension measure were investigated.
Metacognitive knowledge, decoding speed, and the number of books at home (as an indicator for family background) were found to have specific and large effects on on-line comprehension and accounted for 46 percent of the variance with the highest effects for metacognition. Metacognitive knowledge was also highly predictive when the effects of specific prior knowledge and thematic interest on memory-based text comprehension were estimated simultaneously.
In addition, students who showed relative strength in building up a coherent representation of specific texts (memory-based text comprehension) were characterised by high amounts of prior knowledge and thematic interest thereby underlining the important of these student characteristics for learning.