The phenomena of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral
purpose are called Political Business Cycles (PBC), introduced by Nordhaus (1975). Using
policy control economic instruments, as fiscal and monetary instruments, government may
manipulate the economy to gain electoral advantage by producing growth and decreasing
unemployment before elections.
In addition to increased public expenditures, also the production/supply of certain
publicly provided goods may score improvements. In Albania, production and supply of
electricity (for the time span of our analyzes) was controlled by KESH (Korporata
Energjitike Shqiptare – Albanian Energy Corporation) which is a quasi- monopoly in the
supply of electricity in Albania, and it is publicly run. Throughout the transition, supply of
electricity, due to various technical and economic reasons, has not been stable, and
characterized by systematic interruption for households and businesses users, affecting
their well-being and performance (electricity is a main source of energy for households,
including heating and cooking). Therefore, it seems so that there is an incentive and
rationale for the incumbent to use also the provision of electricity to impress the voters
before elections, beside of the classical instruments of expenditures.
In this paper we analyze consumption, production and import of electricity in Albania.
Our hypothesis is that before elections, electricity consumption may increase above usual
levels, followed by a contraction after elections. In our analysis we use modern standard
econometric approach, used widely for research related to PBC. By ARMA modelling it is
possible to prove if elections can explain changes in electricity production, in addition to
the past history of the variable and the random error term.
Within the ideal model of pragma-dialectics discussants act rationally and without any time limits. A rhetorical model of argumentation can be derived by including human restrictions. In this practical model (i.e. not ideal model) discussants have to resolve a difference of opinion within limited time, on the basis of incomplete information, in the awareness of their restricted rationality, and by means of a non-perfect language. They try to maximize their long-term success in persuading the audience under the given limitations. Rhetoric provides means for coping with these limitations by way of following a practically applied rationality.
To investigate the interrater reliability of stroboscopy evaluations assessed using Poburka's Stroboscopy Evaluation Rating Form (SERF).
Single-factor experiment with repeated measures on the same element.
Evaluations of nine experts pertaining to 68 stroboscopy recordings and 16 SERF variables were analyzed. For the 14 SERF variables possessing interval scale level, interrater reliability was investigated using the intraclass correlations for absolute agreement (ICC-a) and consistency (ICC-c). ICCs-c were computed for both original values and values standardized with respect to raters' means and standard deviations (ipsative values). For the two nominally scaled SERF variables, "vertical level" and "glottal closure" interrater reliability was investigated using kappa coefficients.
For evaluations of single raters, ICCs-a ranged from 0.32 to 0.71, ICCs-c for original values from 0.41 to 0.72, and ICCs-c for ipsative values from 0.43 to 0.72. For mean evaluations of two raters, the corresponding values were 0.48 to 0.83 for ICCs-a, 0.58 to 0.84 for ICCs-c for original values, and 0.60 to 0.84 for ICCs-c for ipsative values. The interval scale variables with the lowest interrater reliabilities were phase closure, phase symmetry, and regularity. The kappa coefficients for vertical level and glottal closure were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively.
The interrater reliabilities for vertical level, glottal closure, phase closure, phase symmetry, and regularity are so low that these variables should not be assessed via stroboscopy. For the remaining variables, adequate reliability can be obtained by aggregating evaluations from at least two raters.
Two reading literacy/text comprehension tests with different demands (on-line comprehension vs. memory-based comprehension) were administered to 6,104 15-year-old students from all German states and school types. The combined and specific effects of proximal and distal variables from small-scale psychological research as well as from large-scale educational studies on each text comprehension measure were investigated.
Metacognitive knowledge, decoding speed, and the number of books at home (as an indicator for family background) were found to have specific and large effects on on-line comprehension and accounted for 46 percent of the variance with the highest effects for metacognition. Metacognitive knowledge was also highly predictive when the effects of specific prior knowledge and thematic interest on memory-based text comprehension were estimated simultaneously.
In addition, students who showed relative strength in building up a coherent representation of specific texts (memory-based text comprehension) were characterised by high amounts of prior knowledge and thematic interest thereby underlining the important of these student characteristics for learning.
The market structure can be described by concentration ratios based on the
oligopoly theory or the structure – conduct – performance paradigm. Measures of
concentration and also competition are essential for banks conduction in the
banking industry. Several researchers have proved concentration level to be major
determinants of banking system efficiency. Theoretical characteristics of market
concentration measures are illustrated with empirical evidence. The market
structure of the Albanian Banking Sector has changed dramatically in recent years.
On 1990s, our country has experienced deregulation, foreign bank penetration, and
an accelerated process of consolidation and competition in the banking sector.
Particularly, the working paper examines the nature and the extent of changes in
market concentration of Albanian banking sector. It focused primarily on a
descriptive and dynamic analysis of change in the concentration indices in banking
sector from year to year. Also it examines how the inherited structure of the
banking system affects the way of the distribution of market shares amongst the
different banks that comprise on the banking sector.
This study offers an account of the Present Perfect and its usage in worldwide varieties of English. It is based on corpus data from the International Corpus of English (ICE), which is assessed both quantitatively and qualitatively. It follows up on two broad desiderata in Present Perfect research, namely (i) to extend the knowledge of this grammatical area beyond the traditional British/American English paradigm, and (ii) to provide a systematic account of language-external effects such as modes of discourse, macro-genres and text categories.
Occurrences of the Present Perfect are automatically extracted from part-of-speech tagged corpus files. Representative samples of the occurrences are then manually annotated for various factors (such as semantics, Aktionsart, temporal adverbials, sentence type, preceding tense, etc.) so that the distributions and the relative importance of these factors can be analyzed. In addition, the impact of alternative (non-standard) surface forms that may express a Present Perfect notion is considered.
Measures of similarity between the various varieties of English under investigation are established (e.g. with the help of multidimensional aggregational methods such as cluster analyses and phylogenetic networks) and findings are related to a number of general models of World Englishes, whose descriptive adequacy for this particular area of grammar is tested.
The economic crisis has brought a new situation also for the Hungarian economic
policy, as neoliberalism as the main trend in economic thought is no
longer valid. This phenomenon cannot be reduced to be a mere macroeconomic
course shift, as an entire economic philosophy and approach has lost its relevance.
One consequence of this is the need for a thorough revision of the theory
and practice of business management, along with the re-evaluation of the notion
and position of the corporation.
Our study aims to contribute to this theoretical reformation, presenting that social
values derived from psychological and sociological findings such as human
motivational theories or trust are fundamental elements of the 21st century corporate
model. To point to this, we use the ideological correspondences, while
proving that our national research on corporate theory and even rather its application
are far behind the 21st century requirements and lack even the Western
view of the 20th century.
In 1932 Frederic Bartlett laid the foundation for the later Schema Theory. His findings considerably contributed to the understanding of how previous knowledge affects processing of visual stimuli. Empirical proof however is sparse and Bartlett’s results are hardly verifiable. We replicated Bartlett’s methods of ‘serial’ (Experiment 1, N=177) and ‘repeated reproduction’ (Experiment 2, N=53). In both experiments undergraduates inspected particular one of different sketches variing in the degree of faceness. After a delay of a minimum of 15 minutes participants were asked to reproduce their visual imageries. In Experiment 1 we rotated the produced sketches among participants and repeated the procedure five times. In Experiment 2 we asked them to reproduce their visual imageries after minimum weekly delays for five times. In two subsequent studies the participant’s sketches were evaluated in the degree of faceness on a 7-point Likert-scale. In contrast to Bartlett’s findings the sketches did not become more face-like the more often the reproduction process was performed, indicating more complex cognitive processes underlying the schema formation. For Experiment 1 we even obtained reversed effects with less face-likeness after a series of reproduction. Further research should vary influential factors such as creativity, drawing abilities and delays to get further insights into the formation of memory from visual inputs.
A growing body of literature reports evidence of social interaction effects in survey expectations. In this note, we argue that evidence in favor of social interaction effects should be treated with caution, or could even be spurious. Utilizing a parsimonious stochastic model of expectation formation and dy- namics, we show that the existing sample sizes of survey expectations are about two orders of magnitude too small to reasonably distinguish between noise and interaction effects. Moreover, we argue that the problem is com- pounded by the fact that highly correlated responses among agents might not be caused by interaction effects at all, but instead by model-consistent beliefs. Ultimately, these results suggest that existing survey data cannot facilitate our understanding of the process of expectations formation.