The employment period is of central importance in the life course and therefore ensuring job stability, whether internally or between firms, is essential for workers. In considering this, it is worthwhile to note from the outset that employees act within a particular framework. Employment trajectories are affected by firm-specific opportunity structures and diverse regional heterogeneities. Furthermore, the role of the business cycle is also an important factor to be addressed. This article is to contribute to existing research on employment trajectories and particularly towards addressing more fully structural factors that frame action, which remain under investigated.
In order to gain a fuller picture of structural and cyclical determinants, a German linked employer-employee dataset as well as data on regional economic characteristics using the ‘Spatial Planning Regions’ (German statistical units) were merged. The hierarchically clustered data was explored through multilevel models of analysis. Firstly, the key factors of influence on employment stability were identified, followed by the determinants of upward, lateral and downward inter-firm mobility as well as those transitions that lead to unemployment.
This article shows that during an economic upswing inter-firm promotions are more frequently achieved, whereas in an economic downswing the risks of unemployment increase. Moreover, it was found that investment in further training and internal infrastructure has a positive effect on employment trajectories. In addition, work councils increase employment stability, especially during periods of economic growth. In contrast to this, employment trajectories are destabilised through a disadvantageous firm demography as well as the intensive use of fixed-term employment. Densely populated areas offer better employment opportunities, whereas unemployment risks dominate in rural areas during an economic downswing. Furthermore, differences in levels of productivity as well as the particular labour market environment accentuate unequal employment opportunities. Regardless of qualification level, all employees within a region during an economic upswing benefit from the accumulation of a higher level of human capital, whereas during an economic downturn, skill segregation prevails, where it is only the highly qualified that benefit.
Der Beitrag untersucht anhand einer Intourist-Reisebroschüre aus der Sowjetzeit, wie seinerzeit Armenien präsentiert wurde - mit welchen Städten und Stätten, und mit welcher Interpretation. Der Artikel ist reichhaltig illustriert, und die komplette Broschüre ist als Anhang beigefügt.
Das Controlling im Mittelstand erfüllt sich in Theorie und Praxis wachsender Beliebtheit. Gleichwohl gibt es bisher nur wenig gesicherte empirische Erkenntnisse. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt die Ergebnisse einer Online-Umfrage aus dem Jahr 2010/2011 dar.
We develop a novel financial market model in which the stock markets of two countries
are linked via and with the foreign exchange market. To be precise, there are domestic
and foreign speculators in each of the two stock markets which rely either on linear
technical or linear fundamental trading strategies to determine their orders. Since
foreign stock market speculators require foreign currency to conduct their trades, all
three markets are connected. Our setup entails a natural nonlinearity which may cause
persistent endogenous price dynamics. Moreover, we analytically show that market
interactions can destabilize the model’s fundamental steady state.
In the framework of small-scale agent-based financial market models, the paper starts
out from the concept of structural stochastic volatility, which derives from different noise
levels in the demand of fundamentalists and chartists and the time-varying market shares
of the two groups. It advances several different specifications of the endogenous switching
between the trading strategies and then estimates these models by the method of simulated
moments (MSM), where the choice of the moments reflects the basic stylized facts
of the daily returns of a stock market index. In addition to the standard version of MSM
with a quadratic loss function, we also take into account how often a great number of
Monte Carlo simulation runs happen to yield moments that are all contained within their
empirical confidence intervals. The model contest along these lines reveals a strong role
for a (tamed) herding component. The quantitative performance of the winner model is
so good that it may provide a standard for future research.
The phenomenon of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose is called
Political Business Cycles (PBC). Using policy control economic instruments, such as fiscal and monetary
instruments, governments may manipulate the economy to gain electoral advantage by producing growth
and decreasing unemployment before elections.
Earlier research on PBC in Albania found clear evidence of fiscal expansion before elections. In addition
to increased income from taxes and borrowing, another source of financing the increased fiscal expansion
in transition countries may be income from privatization, which is also the object of the analysis of this
paper. In our analysis we apply standard econometric approach, used widely for research related to PBC.
We test if income from privatization increases before elections.
We find statistically significant increase of income from privatization before general (parliamentary)
elections, which may lead us to conclude that one of the reasons may be to finance increased expenditures
before elections. Another motivation, behind this behavior of the incumbent, may be rent – seeking.
These results are of particular interest, as it is for the first time that income from privatization is analyzed
in conjunction with PBC.
Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current
account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two
aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of
crises in terms of economic growth and controls via a treatment type model for possible sample
selection governing the occurrence of crises in order to estimate the impact on economic
growth correctly. The applied empirical models allow for rich intertemporal dependencies
via serially correlated errors and capture latent country specific heterogeneity via random
coefficients. For accurate estimation of the treatment type model a simulated maximum
likelihood approach employing efficient importance sampling is used. The results reveal significant
costs in terms of economic growth for both crises. Costs for reversals are linked
to country specific variables, while costs for currency crises are not. Furthermore, shocks
explaining current account reversals and growth show strong significant positive correlation.
This article explores the influence of competitive conditions on the
evolutionary fitness of different risk preferences. As a practical example, the
professional competition between fund managers is considered. To explore how
different settings of competition parameters, the exclusion rate and the exclusion
interval, affect individual investment behavior, an evolutionary model based on a
genetic algorithm is developed. The simulation experiments indicate that the
influence of competitve conditions on investment behavior and attitudes towards risk
is significant. What is alarming is that intense competitive pressure generates riskseeking
behavior and undermines the predominance of the most skilled.